The Battle OF Heartland FOR Eastern Europe
Иде реч за това, че най-накрая руските политици изплюха камъчето, че мислят геополитически и по-точно в класическият смисъл на геополитиката.
Според Макиндер, битката е за ресурси. Нищо кой-знае какво. Това без да ни го казва го е имало и преди него. Въпреки това, той добавя, че битката преди за Хартланда е за Източна Европа:
"Този, който контролира източна европа, контролира Хартланда; Този, който контролира Хартланда, контролира световният остров: този, който контролира световният остров, контролира света."
Неговата идея е, че битката е първо за източна европа. В битката за източна европа в момента са 3 сили:
1. ЕС- създаден от френските политически географи.
2. ШОС, Русия
3. САЩ
Тактиката на ES e posledovatelno окрупняване на техняият естествен западен център на света. В идеята на френските геополитици има доза истина, но те не са видели надигащите се САЩ и второстепенната роля на ЕС. Въпреки това, те са имали за идея създаването на нова геополитическа структура, която просто съвпада с идеите на Спюкман за Римланда. Спюкма, от своя страна не е взимал под внимание идеите на френските геополитици, но за да може неговият модел да работи, то неможе да няма политическо окрупняване на територията на западният цивилизационен център (европа).
И така. ES za momenta не е самостоятелна политическа сила- той е нищо. Това са просто държави, които икономически се интегрират, но политически се инатят да направят същото. Но в момента, когато всичките тези държави имат синхронност във външната политика, то те ще проявят поведение на Римланд-Europe (понеже може да се твърди, че Китай, Индия, Пакистан, Иран, Iraq и Турция, са Римланд-Близък и Далечен изток).
За руснаците, вече знаем, че те са Хеартланд и като такъв, те могат да се опитат да прокарват "стратегическа дълбочина", чрез буферни зони, извън и в допълнение на "дълбочината", която имат зад границите си. Нещо подобно, което става и с БГ, в контекста на ES i qdroto от западни държави. Вероятно, са били реваншистки настроени или изпитват страх от Украйна по една или друга причина (на който може и по-нататък да се говори) и са решили да демонстрират сила и установят контрол индиректно, политически.
За Американците- за тях всеки проблем между ES i Rusiq е добре дошъл-- понеже противнически ресурси се хабят.
И така:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/cpress/20060104/ca_pr_on_wo/russia_energy_influence_1Russia braced to exert renewed muscle with vast energy resources FRED WEIR
Wed Jan 4, 12:26 PM ET
MOSCOW (CP) - The Russo-Ukrainian gas standoff, which ended in a tense settlement Wednesday, could signal the return of a self-confident and confrontation-prone Russia to the world stage, experts say.
Call it PetroKremlin. Over the past year, the Russian state has effectively re-nationalized a third of the country's vast energy resources, creating an oil-gas goliath that could be used to revive Soviet-style power status.
"Amazing changes are happening swiftly, because (President Vladimir) Putin has understood that energy is Russia's key card to play at the international table," says Michael Heath, a political analyst with Aton, a Russian brokerage.
"Instead of the military force the Soviet Union used to project its power, Russia is using oil as a major tool of foreign policy."
This week's gas war with Ukraine, which ended with Kyiv accepting a nearly five-fold hike in the price of Russian energy, suggests a new Kremlin readiness to use its petro-muscle to achieve political goals.
Ukraine, which broke from Moscow's influence in the "Orange Revolution" a year ago, had protested that Russia's proposed price hike - to $230 per thousand cubic metres of gas - was more than twice the rate paid by other neighbours of Russia, including Georgia, Latvia and Estonia.
Belarus, a loyal ally of Russia, pays just $47 for the same amount.
"We have vast resources and they give us political influence," says Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the official Institute of Commonwealth of Independent States Studies in Moscow.
"If we give a lower price to somebody, we have the right to demand political concessions. So, we will give economic aid only to the countries that are loyal to us. This may not be a great geo-political policy, but it's better than nothing," he says.
On Jan. 1, Russia assumed the chair of the Group of Eight market-driven democracies, pledging to promote global "energy security." But the Kremlin's emerging strategy looks more like incentive-inducing.
At a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in mid-December,
Putin pledged to boost oil deliveries to Asia, from the present three per cent of Russia's total exports to 30 per cent by 2020.
In a joint statement, leaders of the 10-country group pledged to build a "comprehensive partnership" and boost trade and security co-operation with Russia.
A new Siberian pipeline should start pumping crude in 2008, with early deliveries going mainly to China.
Russia is the world's second-largest producer of petroleum - about eight million barrels of crude per day - which accounts for nearly 40 per cent of the country's gross domestic product. Spiking global oil prices over the past five years have wafted state budgets into the black, fuelled a modest economic boom, and enabled the Central Bank to rack up reserves of $170 billion.
But the Kremlin has gone far beyond merely taxing windfall energy profits, and moved to take over the industry.
Russia's third-largest oil firm, Yukos, was dismantled in parallel with the prosecution of its politically defiant owner, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and its main production units gobbled up by the state oil company Rosneft.
Earlier this year, the government took a controlling 51 per cent stake in Gazprom, the natural-gas giant that holds a quarter of the world's reserves, and Gazprom paid $13 billion to purchase Russia's fifth-largest oil major, Sibneft.
Sibneft, now effectively state owned, last month purchased a 25 per cent stake in the huge Pacific-coast Lopukhov oil-gas field, formerly held by TNK-BP, a Russian-British joint venture.
"Now the state directly controls about 30 per cent of petroleum production in Russia and the big question is, how much more will it take?" says Valery Nesterov, an energy expert with Troika Dialogue, a Russian investment bank.
"This is a big cause of concern for Russian and foreign oil investors."
But tightened state control could prove good news for foreign investors who want a piece of Russia's oil pie, as long as they don't insist on controlling rights.
Up to 49 per cent of Rosneft may soon be sold to outside buyers, to raise cash to repay $7.5 billion the state borrowed to acquire a majority stake in Gazprom. Curbs on foreigners seeking to buy shares in Gazprom will also soon be lifted, experts say.
A flurry of new projects between state oil companies and selected international partners suggest the Kremlin intends to wed petroleum supplies firmly to foreign policy.
-A $15-billion Siberian pipeline, due to begin pumping in 2008, will shift Russian crude exports to Asia, particularly China, where Moscow is cultivating fresh strategic relationships.
-A 1,185-kilometre Russian gas line being laid beneath the Baltic Sea will cut out middlemen Ukraine and Poland, with whom Moscow's relations have recently soured, while locking Russia in as Western Europe's most crucial energy supplier. Former German chancellor Gerhard Shroeder has reportedly been hired to head the project.
-State-run Gazprom has teamed up with several foreign partners to develop a vast Barents Sea gas field, whose production, coverted to liquefied natural gas, could begin supplying North America by 2010. A year ago Gazprom signed a preliminary deal with PetroCanada to build an LNG plant near St. Petersburg.
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